I have not been blogging as much this year as I did last year about this amazing MPI and the prediction system. I honestly believe it is the best in the world, but will need some time and an accumulation of about 300-400 games to prove that what we are seeing are not chance effects.
That is one thing that is very different from what I am doing compared with many others who pick games. You will read about many prognosticators who get hot over a period of 10, 20 or 30 games and think they have been named the modern day Nostradamus when what they have really seen is a rare streak of luck or chance. If you keep following that guy or gal who got hot in the short term over the next 200 games, you realize it was all an illusion. Their great 17-3 record after 20 games ends up about 101-99 after 200 games are played!
Statistics have a way of revealing truth. If you collect enough samples, or as they say in the field “get a bigger n” you begin to reduce the effect of chance and start to see numbers that much more accurately estimate what is called the true population mean. I have taught statistics in college and graduate school and always took great efforts to explain these basics of the normal curve, probability, and the need to have tons of data to gain legitimacy.
So the MPI system you are reading about is going to be proven or not to be extremely accurate over many hundreds of games predicted in advance. Nothing short of that will do. I will not accept a shallow victory. So far the system has an impressive record of 61 wins, 47 losses and 4 pushes (56.48%), but we know from statistics that those 108 non-push games are still a very small number. Yes, it is a great start for sure. Remember the world’s best handicappers get around 50%. But it’s still only 108 games and there is a possibility still that chance factors are what have been going on most of all. Deep down, I know it is real, but I still have to prove it.
The other aspect of the MPI that is so different is that it is a system that relies heavily upon “mental performance” or “smart play” of a football team, something that is totally ignored still by football coaches, and media and statisticians. My research on the effects of the mental factor began by looking closely at every play in Super Bowl history, and then later looking at 40 years of past games. My findings showed that this mental factor was remarkably consistent in helping teams win, or lose if they made a lot of mental errors!
Now here we are right before week 4 of the 2019 NFL season, and the second official year of testing of the MPI prediction system. Nothing that I have seen so far in making those 108 game predictions has convinced me that we are not right where we need to be. But we need more time and more data to take over the world!
Thanks for tuning in. See the 4 picks this week, and enjoy the games! You will find all the picks at the link on top of the main page called John F Murray’s NFL Picks.