After 5 weeks of serious football, the true winners begin to emerge and those destined for the cellar show their colors as well. Early week uncertainties have subsided and teams begin to hit their strides with much greater knowledge about their opponents and game plans that are more accurate. It is my belief that by week 6 teams that should win will win more often and teams that should lose will do the same.
One of the more interesting match-ups this week is Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. The Bengals have a real chance to take a huge lead and blow away that division. The Steelers, by contrast, are fighting for their very survival and no team does it better than the black and yellow. Even more important, my metrics show that Pittsburgh should be the best pick this week at +2.5. Let’s see if I nailed it.
I also feel pretty good about the Carolina Panthers and their chances against Washington today. The MPI metrics are excellent and the line movement this week indicates that my pick of Carolina +2 is solid, but we shall see.
I am not as confident personally of my other two picks this week: 49ers +10 at Green Bay and Bills +8.5 at Texans, but that is why they play the game. One thing I have learned over time is that the line is remarkably accurate and so no matter how bleak a team’s chances look, in a spread format the teams are more or less equalized. I can only hope that is the case with the 49ers playing Aaron Rodgers on national TV and with the inept Bills offense playing the mighty Texans!
Whatever happens this weekend with my 4 picks, I can only hope I fare better than last week’s 0-3 debacle! But again, we need a long-term focus over hundreds of games no matter what happens.
Enjoy the action today and tomorrow!