Well, as predicted, the teams came out and played a little more like they should have last week. “Should have” indicates that we know more about them, and this insight was not lost in my 3-1 record against the spread, raising my overall stats now to 19-15 (55%).
Week 7 is fascinating, as they most are. The Cowboys say that they must beat the Redskins to be a good team, and my metrics show that they will indeed cover that +1.5 spread. Division match-ups like this carry special weight, and without giving away the farm, they hold special value in picking teams too.
I was surprised to see the Colts a 9 point favorite against the Bills, and my system indeed went with the Bills +9. The problem in my case is that the line I used is Bookmaker, -120, and while I am not betting on these games, if I lose that loses me 120 points on my record which is no fun. But let’s go with it anyway.
Other teams I like this week are the Browns +3 against the Bucs, the Saints +3 against the Ravens, the 49ers +10.5 against the Rams, and the Texans +5 against the Jags. I like the Texans and Browns pick, but I’m not too sure about the 49ers. The Rams are such a good team this year that a blowout is always possible, leaving my pick twisting in the wind!
Anyway, that is why they play the game on the field, and not on my computer! I’m hoping for a very big week one of these weeks, so get a little more ahead of that dreadful .500 average that is the bane of football handicappers and represents what a newly born kitten would get if you placed two helmets in front of the kitten and waited to see which one it touched first. An antelope or robot would also get 50% success long term.
But keep in mind that the great Mark Lawrence only gets 52.1% after 1600 plus games in which he picks sides against a spread. So the best handicappers in the world are only 2% better than Las Vegas, and I am still hopeful, but about 3 years away from proving it, of being the world’s best. Call me a meglo-maniac, but I would preferred to be called a serious researcher interested in promoting the mental game, and a serious scientist who has learned a thing or two after many years of study.
Time will tell. In the meantime, enjoy the football!
The Football Shrink