Welcome to this final week 17 of the NFL regular season. If you have been following the Football Shrink this season, you will realize that we have done quite well. The current record stands at 49-40-3 (55%) with 5 picks remaining in this final week. We are cheering for all away underdogs in the Lions +9, Falcons +1.5, Bears +5, Bengals +14.5 and Raiders +13.5.
So why the 55% success so far, when the best in the world at spread side handicapping can only do 52% at best? The answer lies deeply within 5 years of serious research into 40 years of past NFL games along with smart statistical analyses. However, the most important part of the equation is the third major piece – the adaptation of the Mental Performance Index (MPI) which rates how well teams perform both physically and mentally.
Since the Football Shrink picks have access to the rich data produced by the MPI, naturally there is an advantage in understanding teams that nobody else possesses. If you know more than your competitors, you have a huge advantage, and the MPI along with the science and sheer volume of smart analyses is what gives us the edge!
Of course this is just the first year, and we have one more week to go. Hopefully we do not go 0-5 and water down what has been a terrific season, but whatever happens in this final week, there will have only been 97 games predicted at the end of this season and we need at least a couple more years of picks (around 300 in total) to really start establishing what this system can produce. In statistics, you really need a large number of games played to get closer to the true population score, and we are plodding along week by week and will continue to do so in future seasons.
Let’s enjoy this final week of the NFL season, and the playoffs, and then the Football Shrink will be back for the Super Bowl, to make his pick based on what happens with the teams in the playoffs.