Week 11 of the 2018 NFL Season

Six teams are on byes this week, so the pickings are somewhat slim, and there is no way that I would even dare make 10 picks again this week after that huge success last week unless the numbers were overwhelming and decisive. The MPI is great, but even the best picks in the world are usually in the 60% probability range, so we have to be humble after a terrific week and not reach too far. In my research, making fewer picks each week led to significantly increased success, so we need to keep that moderation in mind week to week, or we will get easily swept up into a huge loss.

This week, there are two teams I really like. The Titans +2.5 away against the Colts, and the Broncos +7 away against the Chargers. In each match-up, defense would be the key to success. The Titans need to put pressure on Andrew Luck the way they did to Tom Brady last week. Vaughn Miller and company similarly need to make life very difficult for Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. If those two things happen, we might be in a good place!

My local team, the Miami Dolphins, are on a bye week and boy do they need it. They were anemic last week. I hope Tannehill returns, but even that is doubtful. They need to draft a number one quarterback in my humble view. They also need to invest 100% in mental coaching. Just my thoughts, and I am always right! LOLOLOLOL

Good Luck this week 11!

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